Tony Bates provides a retrospective look at e-learning systems in 2011. I think he mainly hits the series developments on the head, ranging from the consolidation in the CMS market (aka BlackBoard), to the potentially disruptive influence of Pearson’s Open Class.
From my own experience working in an IT department and supporting faculty, I think that the major problem with the Open Class initiative is that it doesn’t truly address the core IT problems with those systems (training, support, and debugging problems). We use Moodle at Woodbury, and while it’s a competent system, it is has a lot of odd legacy wrinkles that make using it a learning proposition.
I’ve played with a variety of Web 2.0 alternatives, but the integration of accounts and course enrollment makes a large barrier to adopting a mishmash of 3rd party systems. Until we get a good standardized API for exporting that data, I think it’s unlikely that we’ll get broad adoption of 3rd party tools into the normal student’s experience.